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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-crowned Night Heron Population Trend in Florida

All statesWetland birds

Black-crowned Night Heron in Florida has edged up: up 17% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+17%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-crowned Night Heron Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-crowned Night Heron in Florida. See the full index history below.

Black-crowned Night Heron Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Florida is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 0.30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Florida is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 0.30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.240.000.56
20270.240.000.56
20280.240.000.56
20290.240.000.56
20300.250.000.56

Black-crowned Night Heron Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Black-crowned Night Heron in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pleasant Grove 21220172011
Shawano 21120112005
Micanopy719681966
Pinecrest720252006
Tamiami719711966
Plantation K519931993
Doctor Inlet519681968
Lake Buffum419991989
St Lucie420252003
Webb320251993
Ft Lonesome320241986
Wildernes Pk320141992
Clewiston320232018
Holey Land320241996
Babcock Rnch319891988
Punta Gorda220132013
Miccosukee219781974
Croom220052003
Corbett220071993
Kenansville220241984
Dupuis W.E.A220232005
Alligator Pt220242024
Ft Mccoy220232022
Devils Gardn220252001
Palmdale220181995

Black-crowned Night Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.