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Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-crowned Night Heron Population Trend in Utah

All statesWetland birds

Black-crowned Night Heron in Utah has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-34%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-crowned Night Heron Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-crowned Night Heron in Utah. See the full index history below.

Black-crowned Night Heron Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Utah is projected to rise about 59% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+59%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Utah is projected to rise about 59% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.110.000.54
20270.110.000.54
20280.100.000.53
20290.100.000.53
20300.090.000.52

Black-crowned Night Heron Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Black-crowned Night Heron in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Neponset Res1220181995
Oak City720111973
Cleveland420142014
Saleratus Cr220121995
Moab220121993
Timpie Spg119801980
Newcastle120111998
Goshen120251969
Woodruff120162011
Delta120251987
Fish Lake Nf119921992
Bear River120251992
Randolph120251992
Bicknell120022002
Callao120231992

Black-crowned Night Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.