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Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-crowned Night Heron Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesWetland birds

Black-crowned Night Heron in Nebraska has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-48%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-crowned Night Heron Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-crowned Night Heron in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Black-crowned Night Heron Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±728.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±728.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±728.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.180.000.41
20230.180.000.41
20240.180.000.41
20250.180.000.41
20260.180.000.41

Black-crowned Night Heron Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Black-crowned Night Heron in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Benkelman320042004
Crescent Lk320171980
Wheeler Co320111993
Mullen220011993
Kennedy220101996
Arthur120172017
Stratton120042004
Surprise119931984
Paxton119851985
Berwyn120022002
Swan Lake120212021
Johnstown119771977
Piester Lake120181969

Black-crowned Night Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.