BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-crowned Night Heron Population Trend in Idaho

All statesWetland birds

Black-crowned Night Heron in Idaho has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-80%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-crowned Night Heron Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-crowned Night Heron has collapsed in Idaho: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Black-crowned Night Heron Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Idaho is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±174%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±174%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Idaho is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±174%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.15
20250.000.000.15
20260.000.000.15
20270.000.000.15
20280.000.000.15

Black-crowned Night Heron Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Black-crowned Night Heron in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Triangle320212002
Cedar Hill120192015
Preston119941991
Kyle Canyon120232023
Henry119731973
Crane Creek120061996
Springfield119911972
Pasadena Val120101992
Mud Lake120131988

Black-crowned Night Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.