BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-crowned Night Heron Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Black-crowned Night Heron in Texas has surged: up 447% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+447%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-crowned Night Heron Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-crowned Night Heron has surged in Texas: up 447% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Black-crowned Night Heron Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Texas is projected to rise about 177% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.08–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+177%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.6895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±111.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Texas is projected to rise about 177% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.08–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.360.060.66
20260.360.060.66
20270.370.070.67
20280.370.070.67
20290.380.080.68

Black-crowned Night Heron Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Black-crowned Night Heron in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Campbellton2820042004
Claytonville2820221995
Pantex920241979
Lag Atascosa820231976
Waka820161975
Tenmile720192015
Floydada620182007
Twichell620021998
Oyster Lake520241998
Hondo320042004
Weatherford320242024
Dalhart320062006
Quitman Canyon 2320212017
Stowell220101975
Danbury220191988
Rock Island220151979
Lone Oak219691969
Oak Grove219761967
Childress220081992
Circle220171977
Texline219961996
Hackberry219931993
Frankel City220092009
Chandler 2220082005
Quitman Cyn.220092000

Black-crowned Night Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.