BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Royal Tern Population Trend in Florida

All statesWetland birds

Royal Tern in Florida has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-80%Since 1968
28Routes In State
58Years

Notable Royal Tern Trends in Florida

long arc declinecomputed index

Royal Tern has collapsed in Florida: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Royal Tern Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Royal Tern in Florida is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-57%Change by 2029
0.04Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.7695% range
±60.6%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.090.000.81
20260.070.000.79
20270.060.000.78
20280.050.000.77
20290.040.000.76

Royal Tern Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Royal Tern in Florida.
Alligator Pt1820221991
Vero Beach720181994
Scottsmoor520241972
Boca Raton419881968
Steinhatchee319741974
Merritt Island 2320142014
Santa Rosa320031987
Ft Waltn Bch220081966
Doctors Inlet 2220172017
Merritt Isl220081991
San Antonio219911991
St Vincent I220171997
Sugarloaf Key 2220182018
Cross City220151996
Indiantown 2120212021
Port St Joe120131969
Ft Gadsden119801972
St Augustine120231976
Ridge Harbor120172017
Indiantown120011995
Plantation K120041966
Card Sound120212001
Sugarloaf Key120041999
Sebastian119911991
Shawano120012001

Royal Tern Population Trend in Other States

alabamacaliforniadelawaregeorgialouisianamarylandnew-jerseynorth-carolinasouth-carolinatexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.