BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Royal Tern Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Royal Tern in Texas has surged: up 249% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+249%Since 1976
13Routes In State
39Years

Notable Royal Tern Trends in Texas

long arc increasecomputed index

Royal Tern has surged in Texas: up 249% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Royal Tern Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Royal Tern in Texas is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.02–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029
0.15Projected 2029 index
0.02–0.2795% range
±56.2%Backtest error
19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.140.010.26
20260.140.020.26
20270.140.020.27
20280.140.020.27
20290.150.020.27

Royal Tern Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Royal Tern in Texas.
Padre Island Pais4120152015
Bayside 31420242011
Oyster Lake1120241995
Vanderbilt519751975
Bayside320032003
L. Atascosa Nwr220172017
Indianola220241979
Chinquapin220241995
Stowell220221976
Lag Atascosa120121971
Kingsville119761976
Winnie119941994
Danbury120232012

Royal Tern Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.