Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Royal Tern Population Trend in North Carolina
Royal Tern in North Carolina has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
-81%Since 1968
11Routes In State
58Years
Notable Royal Tern Trends in North Carolina
long arc declinecomputed index
Royal Tern has collapsed in North Carolina: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Royal Tern Population Forecast in North Carolina
If the recent trend holds, Royal Tern in North Carolina is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-56%Change by 2029
0.14Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.595% range
±33.9%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 1.6 |
| 2026 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 1.6 |
| 2027 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 1.6 |
| 2028 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 1.6 |
| 2029 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 1.5 |
Royal Tern Survey Routes in North Carolina
| Myrtle Grove | 21 | 2024 | 1966 |
| Shallotte | 2 | 1990 | 1985 |
| Mashoes | 2 | 1982 | 1973 |
| Merrimon | 1 | 2022 | 1968 |
| Supply | 1 | 2015 | 1992 |
| Jarvisburg | 1 | 1999 | 1992 |
| Arapahoe | 1 | 1968 | 1968 |
| Broad Creek | 1 | 2023 | 2023 |
| Newport | 1 | 2023 | 1996 |
| Milltail Cr | 1 | 2024 | 1992 |
| Grandy | 1 | 1975 | 1971 |
Royal Tern Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.