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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Gallinule Population Trend in Florida

All statesWetland birds

Common Gallinule in Florida has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Gallinule Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Gallinule in Florida. See the full index history below.

Common Gallinule Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Common Gallinule in Florida is projected to rise about 137% by 2030 — from 0.73 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±426.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+137%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±426.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Gallinule in Florida is projected to rise about 137% by 2030 — from 0.73 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±426.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.004.5
20271.80.004.5
20281.80.004.5
20291.70.004.5
20301.70.004.5

Common Gallinule Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Common Gallinule in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Andytown6519981974
Wildernes Pk3320141992
Broward2319731966
Holey Land2320251987
Shawano 21720112004
Lovedale1120111987
Indiantown 2820192018
Boca Raton619941968
Tamiami519711971
Shawano520021987
Dale Mabry419881966
Sandy420151987
St Lucie420251987
Weaver Stn420191990
Lake Buffum420171987
San Antonio320171970
Scottsmoor320251969
Crewsville320182003
Merritt Isl320081991
Belmont220251991
Myakka Head220111966
Polk City220191979
Sunniland Gr220101970
Alturas219861971
Kenansville219971984

Common Gallinule Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinevadanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.