BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Gallinule Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Common Gallinule in Texas has risen sharply: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+50%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Gallinule Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Gallinule has risen sharply in Texas: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Gallinule Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Common Gallinule in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Gallinule in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.000.51
20260.230.000.51
20270.230.000.51
20280.230.000.51
20290.230.000.51

Common Gallinule Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Common Gallinule in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Loyola Beach 21720222010
Campbellton920171977
L. Atascosa Nwr720232004
Danbury720241981
Winnie620241967
Katy620241969
Progreso620062006
Raymondville620081969
Indianola420241970
Moon Lake 2420242012
Port Acres420241994
Rock Island320241985
Loyola Beach320062003
Chinquapin320242018
Encinal 2320152015
Kingsville220051976
Goliad Prairie220112007
Bayside 2220001997
Hondo220181976
Town Bluff220221994
Massey Lake220062002
Oyster Lake220211997
Easton 2220232023
Lag Atascosa120211969
Zapata119741967

Common Gallinule Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinevadanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseeutahvermontwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.