BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Gallinule Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Common Gallinule in Texas has edged up: up 18% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+18%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Gallinule Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Gallinule in Texas. See the full index history below.

Common Gallinule Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Common Gallinule in Texas is projected to rise about 51% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Gallinule in Texas is projected to rise about 51% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.220.000.51
20270.220.000.51
20280.220.000.51
20290.220.000.51
20300.220.000.51

Common Gallinule Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Common Gallinule in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Loyola Beach 21720222010
Campbellton920171977
Progreso620062006
Raymondville620081969
Stowell520251968
Indianola420241970
Katy420251969
L. Atascosa Nwr320252004
Rock Island320241985
Moon Lake 2320252012
Loyola Beach320062003
Chinquapin320252018
Encinal 2320152015
Kingsville220051976
Goliad Prairie220112007
Winnie220251967
Danbury220251981
Bayside 2220001997
Hondo220181976
Town Bluff220221994
Massey Lake220062002
Oyster Lake220211997
Easton 2220232023
Lag Atascosa120211969
Zapata119741967

Common Gallinule Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinevadanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseeutahvermontwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.