BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Gallinule Population Trend in New York

All statesWetland birds

Common Gallinule in New York has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-49%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Gallinule Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Gallinule in New York. See the full index history below.

Common Gallinule Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Common Gallinule in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Gallinule in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.04
20260.020.000.04
20270.020.000.04
20280.020.000.04
20290.020.000.04

Common Gallinule Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Common Gallinule in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alder Creek419691969
Ogdensburg120241984
Byron119881986
Wanakena119931993
Castile120111967
Cicero Ctr119711971
Watertown120051993
Naples119721970
Orleans120101987
Philadelphia120081995
Mt Morris119741974
West Seneca119791975
Salem119771977
Duanesburg120092009
Waddington119981995

Common Gallinule Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinevadanew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.