BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Gallinule Population Trend in Alabama

All statesWetland birds

Common Gallinule in Alabama has surged: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+99%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Gallinule Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Gallinule has surged in Alabama: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Common Gallinule Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Common Gallinule in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Gallinule in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.060.000.13
20250.060.000.13
20260.070.000.13
20270.070.000.13
20280.070.000.13

Common Gallinule Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Common Gallinule in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chacaloochee Bay720192009
Dauphin Is 2219941994
Fairview219921992
Rock Chapel220232023
Madrid119991997
Dauphin Is119851966
Alabama Pt119901973
Brooksville119901990
Smyer Lake120042004
Elberta119951995
Grangeburg120051999

Common Gallinule Population Trend in Other States

arizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinevadanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.