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Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tricolored Heron Population Trend in Florida

All statesWetland birds

Tricolored Heron in Florida has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-68%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tricolored Heron Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tricolored Heron has fallen sharply in Florida: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Tricolored Heron Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Tricolored Heron in Florida is projected to rise about 146% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±196.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+146%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±196.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tricolored Heron in Florida is projected to rise about 146% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±196.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.003.0
20261.40.003.0
20271.40.003.0
20281.40.003.0
20291.40.003.0

Tricolored Heron Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Tricolored Heron in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Merritt Island 21620142014
Merritt Isl1520111991
Key West1419871987
Shawano 21420112005
Sugarloaf Key 21220212005
Weaver Stn920191987
Holey Land920241988
Tamiami819741966
Mabel 2620192013
Wildernes Pk620141992
Salvista519781967
St Lucie520241987
Babcock Rnch519891988
Boca Raton419941968
Shawano420021994
Corbett420241987
Sunniland Gr320211966
Pennywash Cr320181987
Gardner319971987
Davie320171987
Devils Gardn320241987
Sugarloaf Key320041999
Webb320241991
Port St Joe220141968
Micanopy219671966

Tricolored Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawaregeorgiakansaslouisianamarylandmississippinew-jerseynorth-carolinasouth-carolinatexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.