BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Tricolored Heron Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Tricolored Heron in Texas has surged: up 138% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+138%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tricolored Heron Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tricolored Heron has surged in Texas: up 138% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Tricolored Heron Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Tricolored Heron in Texas is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 0.62 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tricolored Heron in Texas is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 0.62 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.350.000.74
20270.350.000.75
20280.360.000.75
20290.360.000.76
20300.360.000.76

Tricolored Heron Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Tricolored Heron in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
L. Atascosa Nwr7820251998
Bayside 26520011997
Moon Lake2320091994
Bayside2120031994
Indianola1020241967
Lag Atascosa820251970
Loyola Beach620071998
Oyster Lake520251995
Bayside 3420252005
Petronila320191975
Heidelberg320212019
Winnie220121967
Arenosa Crk220022000
Town Bluff220091994
Chinquapin220251995
Port Acres220231994
Zapata119871987
Kingsville119921976
Hearne120002000
Hinkles Fer120241968
Hobson119831983
Campbellton119951995
Loyola Beach 2120222010
Cayuga120162006
Stowell120251971

Tricolored Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiakansaslouisianamarylandmississippinew-jerseynorth-carolinasouth-carolinavirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.