BirdAnalyst
Species · Georgia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tricolored Heron Population Trend in Georgia

All statesWetland birds

Tricolored Heron in Georgia has collapsed: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-96%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tricolored Heron Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tricolored Heron has collapsed in Georgia: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Tricolored Heron Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Tricolored Heron in Georgia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±440.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±440.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tricolored Heron in Georgia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±440.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.83
20250.000.000.83
20260.000.000.83
20270.000.000.83
20280.000.000.83

Tricolored Heron Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Tricolored Heron in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stockton320072004
Nashville219901990
Harrietts Bl120001992
Darien120191966
Baxley119671967
Fowlstown120132013
Everett City120191976
Guyton119901966
Woodbine120142014
Pineora120092009
Colonels Island120232005
Thornton Road120182018
Pitts120122012
Newton120232023
Ware Co119931993
Ousley120182015
Keller119801975
Needmore119831983

Tricolored Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridakansaslouisianamarylandmississippinew-jerseynorth-carolinasouth-carolinatexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.