BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Tricolored Heron Population Analysis

ArdeidaeWetland birdsEgretta tricolor

Tricolored Heron has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-46%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
247RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Tricolored Heron

The Tricolored Heron (Egretta tricolor) is a North American member of the Herons, Egrets & Bitterns (Ardeidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the wetland birds.

Size
12–51 in long (30–130 cm) — a long-legged wader (typical for the family)
Habitat
Marshes, ponds, lakeshores and other freshwater wetlands.
Diet
Aquatic invertebrates, small fish, frogs and plant matter.
Range
Recorded on 247 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 14 states, most concentrated in the Peninsular Florida.
Family
Ardeidae · Wetland birds

Notable Tricolored Heron TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Tricolored Heron. See the full index history below.

Tricolored Heron Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tricolored Heron is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±128%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tricolored Heron is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.090.000.20
20270.090.000.20
20280.090.000.20
20290.090.000.20
20300.090.000.20

Where the Tricolored Heron Is Detected

BBS routes recording Tricolored Heron, sized by most recent count.

Tricolored Heron Population Trend by State

Tricolored Heron population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama-78%19688
Arkansasinsufficient datan/a1
Delawareinsufficient datan/a3
Florida-69%196897
Georgia-96%196818
Kansasinsufficient datan/a2
Louisiana+111%197051
Marylandinsufficient datan/a3
Mississippiinsufficient datan/a5
New Jersey-57%19844
North Carolina-62%19697
South Carolina-74%19706
Texas+138%197039
Virginiainsufficient datan/a3

Tricolored Heron Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Tricolored Heron population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Oaks and Prairies+1%198310
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas-32%199412
Mississippi Alluvial Valley+131%197420
Southeastern Coastal Plain-82%196867
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast-37%198113
Peninsular Florida-72%196877
Tamaulipan Brushlands-26%19895
Gulf Coastal Prairie+135%197041

Tricolored Heron Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 46% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.