BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Tricolored Heron In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Tricolored Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-82%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tricolored Heron has collapsed in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Tricolored Heron In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tricolored Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tricolored Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.060.000.23
20270.060.000.23
20280.050.000.23
20290.050.000.22
20300.050.000.22

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Tricolored Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA92025
StocktonGEORGIA32007
Port St JoeFLORIDA22014
Santa RosaFLORIDA21995
NashvilleGEORGIA21990
Holly HillSOUTH-CAROLINA21980
WalterboroSOUTH-CAROLINA21975
GrangeburgALABAMA12018
Dauphin IsALABAMA11990
Alabama PtALABAMA11995
EpesALABAMA12016
Dauphin Is 2ALABAMA12015
Alabama Pt 2ALABAMA12009
Gainestown FerryALABAMA12006
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA12017
Oak GroveFLORIDA11976
Ft Waltn BchFLORIDA11975
BlountstownFLORIDA12015
Broad BranchFLORIDA11998
MiccosukeeFLORIDA12021
CovingtonFLORIDA11979
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA12005
BelmontFLORIDA11974
Ft GadsdenFLORIDA11970
HilliardFLORIDA12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.