BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tricolored Heron In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Tricolored Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-87%Since 1968
67Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Tricolored Heron has collapsed in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tricolored Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029
0.05Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.2395% range
±78.4%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.060.000.23
20260.060.000.23
20270.060.000.23
20280.050.000.23
20290.050.000.23

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Tricolored Heron in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA52024
Kiawah IslandSOUTH-CAROLINA42024
StocktonGEORGIA32007
Port St JoeFLORIDA22014
Santa RosaFLORIDA21995
St Vincent IFLORIDA22024
NashvilleGEORGIA21990
Holly HillSOUTH-CAROLINA21980
WalterboroSOUTH-CAROLINA21975
GrangeburgALABAMA12018
Dauphin IsALABAMA11990
Alabama PtALABAMA11995
EpesALABAMA12016
Dauphin Is 2ALABAMA12015
Alabama Pt 2ALABAMA12009
Gainestown FerryALABAMA12006
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA12017
Oak GroveFLORIDA11976
Ft Waltn BchFLORIDA11975
BlountstownFLORIDA12015
Broad BranchFLORIDA11998
MiccosukeeFLORIDA12021
CovingtonFLORIDA11979
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA12005
BelmontFLORIDA11974

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.