BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tricolored Heron In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Tricolored Heron in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-71%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tricolored Heron has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tricolored Heron in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 140% by 2029 — from 0.82 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±179.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+140%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±179.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tricolored Heron in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 140% by 2029 — from 0.82 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±179.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.004.5
20262.00.004.5
20272.00.004.5
20282.00.004.5
20292.00.004.5

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Tricolored Heron in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Merritt Island 2FLORIDA162014
Merritt IslFLORIDA152011
Key WestFLORIDA141987
Shawano 2FLORIDA142011
Sugarloaf Key 2FLORIDA122021
Weaver StnFLORIDA92019
Holey LandFLORIDA92024
TamiamiFLORIDA81974
Mabel 2FLORIDA62019
Wildernes PkFLORIDA62014
SalvistaFLORIDA51978
St LucieFLORIDA52024
Babcock RnchFLORIDA51989
Boca RatonFLORIDA41994
ShawanoFLORIDA42002
CorbettFLORIDA42024
Sunniland GrFLORIDA32021
Pennywash CrFLORIDA32018
GardnerFLORIDA31997
DavieFLORIDA32017
Devils GardnFLORIDA32024
Sugarloaf KeyFLORIDA32004
WebbFLORIDA32024
MicanopyFLORIDA21967
Dale MabryFLORIDA21988

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.