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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Tricolored Heron Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesWetland birds

Tricolored Heron in Louisiana has surged: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+111%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tricolored Heron Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tricolored Heron has surged in Louisiana: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Tricolored Heron Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Tricolored Heron in Louisiana is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±152.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±152.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tricolored Heron in Louisiana is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±152.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.006.5
20271.20.006.5
20281.20.006.5
20291.10.006.5
20301.10.006.4

Tricolored Heron Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Tricolored Heron in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sabine Nwr 24720172009
Forked Island4120252008
Forked Island 23220112010
Junior2419911987
Ltl Chenier2320251986
Sabine Nwr2220081989
Creole1519871967
Morgan City1319861968
Roseland920032000
Ramah920241988
Ltl Chenier 2920112010
Woodlawn420212008
Atchafalaya320191989
Shaw320241988
Maurice320241991
Gibson320142001
De Quincy320102000
Morgan City320122011
Kraemer320251997
Carlisle219881987
Freetown220091967
Esther220221988
Evelyn220092007
Kaplan220232000
Belair220251992

Tricolored Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiakansasmarylandmississippinew-jerseynorth-carolinasouth-carolinatexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.