BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Tricolored Heron In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

Tricolored Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 135% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+135%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tricolored Heron has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 135% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Tricolored Heron In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tricolored Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 40% by 2030 — from 7.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±102%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tricolored Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 40% by 2030 — from 7.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.40.0012
20274.40.0012
20284.40.0012
20294.40.0012
20304.40.0012

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Tricolored Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS782025
Bayside 2TEXAS652001
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA472017
Forked IslandLOUISIANA412025
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA322011
JuniorLOUISIANA241991
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA232025
Moon LakeTEXAS232009
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA222008
BaysideTEXAS212003
CreoleLOUISIANA151987
IndianolaTEXAS102024
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA92011
Lag AtascosaTEXAS82025
Loyola BeachTEXAS62007
Oyster LakeTEXAS52025
WoodlawnLOUISIANA42021
Bayside 3TEXAS42025
MauriceLOUISIANA32024
PetronilaTEXAS32019
EstherLOUISIANA22022
KaplanLOUISIANA22023
WinnieTEXAS22012
ChinquapinTEXAS22025
Port AcresTEXAS22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.