BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tricolored Heron In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

Tricolored Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie has increased: up 43% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+43%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Tricolored Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Tricolored Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.2 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±117.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tricolored Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.2 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.20.0012
20264.20.0012
20274.20.0012
20284.20.0012
20294.20.0012

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Tricolored Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bayside 2TEXAS652001
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA472017
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA322011
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS282023
Forked IslandLOUISIANA262024
JuniorLOUISIANA241991
Moon LakeTEXAS232009
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA222008
BaysideTEXAS212003
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA192024
ChinquapinTEXAS162024
CreoleLOUISIANA151987
IndianolaTEXAS102024
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA92011
Loyola BeachTEXAS62007
WoodlawnLOUISIANA42021
MauriceLOUISIANA32024
PetronilaTEXAS32019
EstherLOUISIANA22022
KaplanLOUISIANA22023
WinnieTEXAS22012
Port AcresTEXAS22023
Bayside 3TEXAS22024
LafitteLOUISIANA11991
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA11982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.