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Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Gallinule Population Trend in Florida

All statesWetland birds

Purple Gallinule in Florida has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-78%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Purple Gallinule Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Purple Gallinule has collapsed in Florida: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Purple Gallinule Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Purple Gallinule in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Gallinule in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.020.000.16
20250.020.000.16
20260.010.000.15
20270.010.000.15
20280.010.000.15

Purple Gallinule Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Purple Gallinule in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Holey Land1020121995
Lovedale220112003
Micanopy219771977
St Vincent I220182008
Palmdale220082003
Mabel 2220172017
Oak Grove120072007
Lake Buffum120071996
Broad Branch119811976
Miccosukee119731967
Covington119771967
Steinhatchee119751973
Webb120231998
Myakka Head120092009
Wildernes Pk120142001
Mabel119991988
Indiantown120061978
Broward119691969
Plantation K119741974
Andytown119891975
Pinetta120212021
Nobleton119881988
Sandy119981993
St Lucie119871987
Shawano119941988

Purple Gallinule Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.