BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Purple Gallinule Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Purple Gallinule in Texas has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-55%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Purple Gallinule Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Purple Gallinule has fallen sharply in Texas: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Purple Gallinule Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Purple Gallinule in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Gallinule in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.020.000.16
20270.020.000.16
20280.020.000.16
20290.020.000.16
20300.020.000.16

Purple Gallinule Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Purple Gallinule in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Winnie320251969
Massey Lake220052005
Chinquapin220062003
Oyster Lake220061997
Port Acres220252001
Raymondville219811969
Kingsville119931992
Hinkles Fer119921982
Indianola120231967
Loyola Beach 2120162010
Stowell120051977
Danbury119811981
Katy120251971
Rock Island120151967
Moon Lake 2120212021
Town Bluff120042003
Livingston120241984
Progreso119951995
Moon Lake120071994

Purple Gallinule Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridageorgialouisianamississippi

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.