BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Pelican Population Trend in Florida

All statesWetland birds

Brown Pelican in Florida has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-27%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Pelican Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Pelican in Florida. See the full index history below.

Brown Pelican Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Brown Pelican in Florida is projected to rise about 151% by 2029 — from 0.49 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±227.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+151%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±227.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Pelican in Florida is projected to rise about 151% by 2029 — from 0.49 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±227.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.003.0
20261.20.003.0
20271.20.003.0
20281.20.003.0
20291.20.003.0

Brown Pelican Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Brown Pelican in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Vero Beach1920221993
Alligator Pt1420241988
Port St Joe 21420192015
Scottsmoor1120241968
Santa Rosa1120031987
Sebastian919921987
Ft Waltn Bch820111966
Plantation K820041966
Port St Joe720141967
Merritt Isl720111991
St Vincent I620191995
Steinhatchee520141992
Mabel520012001
Ridge Harbor420161999
Merritt Island 2420142014
Indiantown420171988
Boca Raton419901968
Ft Gadsden320241971
Key West319871987
Indiantown 2220212019
Sugarloaf Key 2220052005
Pleasant Grove 2220232017
Pleasant Gr220071994
Cross City220231989
Punta Gorda120091980

Brown Pelican Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.