BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Pelican Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Brown Pelican in Texas has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1999.

16×Since 1999TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Pelican Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Pelican in Texas. See the full index history below.

Brown Pelican Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Brown Pelican in Texas is projected to rise about 935% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.04–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±231.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+935%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±231.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Pelican in Texas is projected to rise about 935% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.04–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±231.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19962030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.970.002.0
20271.00.002.1
20281.00.002.1
20291.10.002.2
20301.10.042.2

Brown Pelican Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Brown Pelican in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Padre Island Pais8520152015
Bayside5320102002
Stowell1120232021
Indianola920241996
Oyster Lake920251999
Bayside 3820252012
Loyola Beach 2320122012
Bayside 2220011998
Progreso120072007
Chinquapin120241999

Brown Pelican Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.