BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Pelican Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Brown Pelican in Texas has surged: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1999.

24×Since 1999
10Routes In State
27Years

Notable Brown Pelican Trends in Texas

long arc increasecomputed index

Brown Pelican has surged in Texas: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1999.

Brown Pelican Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Brown Pelican in Texas is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.20–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029
1.2Projected 2029 index
0.20–2.395% range
±72.7%Backtest error
19962029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.10.022.1
20261.10.072.2
20271.20.112.2
20281.20.152.2
20291.20.202.3

Brown Pelican Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Brown Pelican in Texas.
Oyster Lake24720241999
Padre Island Pais8520152015
Bayside5320102002
Stowell1120232021
Indianola920241996
Loyola Beach 2320122012
Bayside 2220011998
Progreso120072007
Chinquapin120241999
Bayside 3120242012

Brown Pelican Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.