BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Pelican Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Brown Pelican in Texas has surged: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1999.

24×Since 1999TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Pelican Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Pelican has surged in Texas: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1999.

Brown Pelican Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Brown Pelican in Texas is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.20–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Pelican in Texas is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.20–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19962029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.022.1
20261.10.072.2
20271.20.112.2
20281.20.152.2
20291.20.202.3

Brown Pelican Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Brown Pelican in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oyster Lake24720241999
Padre Island Pais8520152015
Bayside5320102002
Stowell1120232021
Indianola920241996
Loyola Beach 2320122012
Bayside 2220011998
Progreso120072007
Chinquapin120241999
Bayside 3120242012

Brown Pelican Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.