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Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Pelican Population Trend in Alabama

All statesWetland birds

Brown Pelican in Alabama has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

13×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Pelican Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Pelican has surged in Alabama: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Brown Pelican Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Brown Pelican in Alabama is projected to rise about 308% by 2026 — from 0.85 in 2021 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 0.00–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±295.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+308%Change by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±295.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Pelican in Alabama is projected to rise about 308% by 2026 — from 0.85 in 2021 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 0.00–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±295.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20223.40.007.6
20233.40.007.6
20243.40.007.7
20253.40.007.7
20263.50.007.7

Brown Pelican Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Brown Pelican in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dauphin Is15419901966
Alabama Pt 29120192004
Dauphin Is 28520191991
Dauphin Is 36320212021
Alabama Pt4420031966
Chacaloochee Bay220192009

Brown Pelican Population Trend in Other States

californiafloridageorgialouisiananorth-carolinaoregonsouth-carolinatexasvirginiawashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.