BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Pelican

PelecanidaeWetland birdsPelecanus occidentalis

Brown Pelican has surged: up 253% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+253%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Brown Pelican

The Brown Pelican (Pelecanus occidentalis) is a North American member of the Pelicans (Pelecanidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the wetland birds.

Size
41.5–71 in long (105–180 cm) — a very large waterbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Marshes, ponds, lakeshores and other freshwater wetlands.
Diet
Aquatic invertebrates, small fish, frogs and plant matter.
Range
Recorded on 84 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 11 states, most concentrated in the Peninsular Florida.
Family
Pelecanidae · Wetland birds

Notable Brown Pelican TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Pelican. See the full index history below.

Brown Pelican Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Pelican is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.04–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+51%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±141.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Pelican is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.04–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.030.40
20260.220.040.40
20270.220.040.41
20280.230.040.41
20290.230.040.41

Where the Brown Pelican Is Detected

BBS routes recording Brown Pelican, sized by most recent count.

Brown Pelican Population Trend by State

Brown Pelican population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama13×19686
California+525%197414
Florida-27%196834
Georgiainsufficient datan/a1
Louisiana-5%20104
North Carolina-56%19756
Oregoninsufficient datan/a2
South Carolinainsufficient datan/a2
Texas24×199910
Virginiainsufficient datan/a4
Washingtoninsufficient datan/a1

Brown Pelican Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Brown Pelican population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-41%19749
Southeastern Coastal Plain+133%196824
Peninsular Florida-63%196825
Coastal California24×19776
Gulf Coastal Prairie26×199911

Brown Pelican Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 253% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.