BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Pelican Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesWetland birds

Brown Pelican in North Carolina has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-56%Since 1975
6Routes In State
43Years

Notable Brown Pelican Trends in North Carolina

long arc declinecomputed index

Brown Pelican has fallen sharply in North Carolina: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Brown Pelican Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Brown Pelican in North Carolina is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 0.59 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±221.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029
0.65Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.795% range
±221.5%Backtest error
19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.650.001.7
20260.650.001.7
20270.650.001.7
20280.650.001.7
20290.650.001.7

Brown Pelican Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Brown Pelican in North Carolina.
Myrtle Grove3920241972
Merrimon320231985
Milltail Cr220241992
Supply120082002
Jarvisburg119991992
Newport120161997

Brown Pelican Population Trend in Other States

alabamacaliforniafloridageorgialouisianaoregonsouth-carolinatexasvirginiawashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.