BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Pelican Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesWetland birds

Brown Pelican in North Carolina has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-48%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Pelican Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Pelican in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Brown Pelican Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Brown Pelican in North Carolina is projected to rise about 131% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±291.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+131%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.60Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±291.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Pelican in North Carolina is projected to rise about 131% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±291.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.620.001.7
20270.610.001.7
20280.610.001.7
20290.610.001.7
20300.600.001.7

Brown Pelican Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Brown Pelican in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Myrtle Grove920251972
Milltail Cr720251992
Merrimon320231985
Supply120082002
Jarvisburg119991992
Newport120161997

Brown Pelican Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.