Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Brown Pelican Population Trend in California
Brown Pelican in California has surged: up 525% on the route-weighted index since 1974.
+525%Since 1974
14Routes In State
51Years
Notable Brown Pelican Trends in California
long arc increasecomputed index
Brown Pelican has surged in California: up 525% on the route-weighted index since 1974.
Brown Pelican Population Forecast in California
If the recent trend holds, Brown Pelican in California is projected to rise about 83% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+83%Change by 2029
0.33Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.9695% range
±77.4%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.95 |
| 2026 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.95 |
| 2027 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| 2028 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| 2029 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
Brown Pelican Survey Routes in California
| S Catalina | 85 | 2022 | 1988 |
| Morro Bay | 61 | 2018 | 1977 |
| Bodega Bay | 30 | 2021 | 1972 |
| Brawley | 15 | 2006 | 2006 |
| Harbor Lake 2 | 14 | 2024 | 2014 |
| Honeydew | 5 | 2014 | 1975 |
| Redwood N.P. | 4 | 2006 | 2006 |
| Poway | 4 | 1980 | 1973 |
| Niland | 3 | 2019 | 2007 |
| Crescent Cty | 3 | 2002 | 1984 |
| Fairfax | 3 | 2024 | 1978 |
| Harbor Lake | 1 | 1990 | 1978 |
| Fish Rock | 1 | 2012 | 1977 |
| Laytonville | 1 | 1987 | 1983 |
Brown Pelican Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.