BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Pelican In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Brown Pelican in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 136% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+136%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Pelican has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 136% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Brown Pelican In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Pelican in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 666% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±691.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+666%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±691.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Pelican in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 666% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±691.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.003.8
20271.70.003.8
20281.70.003.8
20291.70.003.8
20301.70.003.8

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Brown Pelican in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dauphin IsALABAMA1541990
Alabama Pt 2ALABAMA912019
Dauphin Is 2ALABAMA852019
Dauphin Is 3ALABAMA632021
Alabama PtALABAMA442003
Port St Joe 2FLORIDA142019
Alligator PtFLORIDA122025
Santa RosaFLORIDA112003
OusleyGEORGIA102018
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA92025
Ft Waltn BchFLORIDA82011
Port St JoeFLORIDA72014
Milltail CrNORTH-CAROLINA72025
Kiawah IslandSOUTH-CAROLINA62025
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA52014
MerrimonNORTH-CAROLINA32023
Johns IsleSOUTH-CAROLINA31977
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA22019
Ft GadsdenFLORIDA22025
Cross CityFLORIDA22023
St Vincent IFLORIDA22025
SupplyNORTH-CAROLINA12008
NewportNORTH-CAROLINA12016
JarvisburgNORTH-CAROLINA11999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.