BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Pelican In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Brown Pelican in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 133% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+133%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Pelican has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 133% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Pelican in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 430% by 2029 — from 0.35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±531.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+430%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±531.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Pelican in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 430% by 2029 — from 0.35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±531.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.003.8
20261.80.003.9
20271.80.003.9
20281.80.003.9
20291.90.003.9

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Brown Pelican in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dauphin IsALABAMA1541990
Alabama Pt 2ALABAMA912019
Dauphin Is 2ALABAMA852019
Dauphin Is 3ALABAMA632021
Alabama PtALABAMA442003
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA392024
Alligator PtFLORIDA142024
Port St Joe 2FLORIDA142019
Santa RosaFLORIDA112003
OusleyGEORGIA102018
Ft Waltn BchFLORIDA82011
Port St JoeFLORIDA72014
St Vincent IFLORIDA62019
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA52014
Ft GadsdenFLORIDA32024
MerrimonNORTH-CAROLINA32023
Johns IsleSOUTH-CAROLINA31977
Kiawah IslandSOUTH-CAROLINA32024
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA22019
Cross CityFLORIDA22023
Milltail CrNORTH-CAROLINA22024
SupplyNORTH-CAROLINA12008
NewportNORTH-CAROLINA12016
JarvisburgNORTH-CAROLINA11999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.