BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Pelican In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaWetland birds

Brown Pelican in Coastal California has surged: up 944% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+944%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Pelican in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Brown Pelican In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Pelican in Coastal California is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 0.45 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±179%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.55Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±179%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Pelican in Coastal California is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 0.45 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±179%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.540.001.9
20270.550.001.9
20280.550.001.9
20290.550.001.9
20300.550.001.9

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Brown Pelican in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Morro BayCALIFORNIA612018
Harbor Lake 2CALIFORNIA142024
S CatalinaCALIFORNIA122025
Jofegan 2CALIFORNIA52025
PowayCALIFORNIA41980
FairfaxCALIFORNIA32024
Harbor LakeCALIFORNIA11990

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.