BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Pelican In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Brown Pelican in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Pelican has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Pelican in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±207.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+82%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.53Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±207.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Pelican in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±207.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.610.002.7
20260.590.002.6
20270.570.002.6
20280.550.002.6
20290.530.002.6

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Brown Pelican in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Vero BeachFLORIDA192022
ScottsmoorFLORIDA112024
SebastianFLORIDA91992
Plantation KFLORIDA82004
Merritt IslFLORIDA72011
MabelFLORIDA52001
IndiantownFLORIDA42017
Boca RatonFLORIDA41990
Ridge HarborFLORIDA42016
Merritt Island 2FLORIDA42014
Key WestFLORIDA31987
Pleasant GrFLORIDA22007
Indiantown 2FLORIDA22021
Pleasant Grove 2FLORIDA22023
Sugarloaf Key 2FLORIDA22005
Polk CityFLORIDA12011
ChildsFLORIDA11988
AndytownFLORIDA11981
Winter GardnFLORIDA12010
Key LargoFLORIDA11990
AripekaFLORIDA11996
Weaver StnFLORIDA12005
Punta GordaFLORIDA12009
Card SoundFLORIDA12018
Sugarloaf KeyFLORIDA12004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.