BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Pelican In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

Brown Pelican in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 26× on the route-weighted index since 1999.

26×Since 1999TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Pelican has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 26× on the route-weighted index since 1999.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Pelican in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.3 (95% range 2.5–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Pelican in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.3 (95% range 2.5–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19962029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.01.215
20268.31.515
20278.71.915
20289.02.216
20299.32.516

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Brown Pelican in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oyster LakeTEXAS2472024
Padre Island PaisTEXAS852015
BaysideTEXAS532010
Grand IsleLOUISIANA162019
StowellTEXAS112023
IndianolaTEXAS92024
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS32012
Bayside 2TEXAS22001
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA12017
ChinquapinTEXAS12024
Bayside 3TEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.