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Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Pelican In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWetland birds

Brown Pelican in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-41%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Pelican in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Brown Pelican In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Pelican in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.32 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1230.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1230.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Pelican in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.32 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1230.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.320.001.5
20260.320.001.5
20270.320.001.5
20280.320.001.5
20290.320.001.5

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Brown Pelican in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA302021
Hazel CampOREGON62013
HoneydewCALIFORNIA52014
TaholahWASHINGTON51998
Redwood N.P.CALIFORNIA42006
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA32002
Fish RockCALIFORNIA12012
LaytonvilleCALIFORNIA11987
WedderburnOREGON12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.