BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Tern Population Trend in Florida

All statesWetland birds

Least Tern in Florida has collapsed: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-98%Since 1968
50Routes In State
58Years

Notable Least Tern Trends in Florida

long arc declinecomputed index

Least Tern has collapsed in Florida: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Least Tern Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Least Tern in Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±498.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–3.495% range
±498.3%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.000.003.4
20260.000.003.4
20270.000.003.4
20280.000.003.4
20290.000.003.4

Least Tern Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Least Tern in Florida.
Santa Rosa9720031987
Ft Waltn Bch2620111966
St Lucie1720021995
Key Largo1619911987
Merritt Isl1520081991
Key West819871987
Citrus Park820091990
Boca Raton619941968
Scottsmoor520241968
Plantation K520041966
Indiantown420171969
Sandy420072002
Indiantown 2320222019
Sugarloaf Key 2320182005
Alligator Pt319881988
Homestead320072007
Punta Gorda220141980
Ft Gadsden220141969
Dale Mabry219881973
Belmore219721972
Mabel219681968
Childs219771977
Salvista219781969
Broward219731968
Doctor Inlet220001998

Least Tern Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawaregeorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinebraskanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.