BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Least Tern Population Trend in Maryland

All statesWetland birds

Least Tern in Maryland has surged: up 136% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+136%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Least Tern Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Least Tern in Maryland. See the full index history below.

Least Tern Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Least Tern in Maryland is projected to fall about 72% by 2030 — from 0.29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-72%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±109.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Tern in Maryland is projected to fall about 72% by 2030 — from 0.29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.080.000.24
20270.080.000.24
20280.080.000.24
20290.080.000.24
20300.080.000.24

Least Tern Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Least Tern in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Easton820252015
Golden Hill619951980
Honga320251974
Upper Xrds220081983
Theodore120132010
Northeast120042004
Elkton120121970
Millington120092000
Piney Neck120242004

Least Tern Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmississippimissourinebraskanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.