Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Least Tern Population Trend in Kentucky
Least Tern in Kentucky has surged: up 126% on the route-weighted index since 1978.
+126%Since 1978
3Routes In State
18Years
Notable Least Tern Trends in Kentucky
long arc increasecomputed index
Least Tern has surged in Kentucky: up 126% on the route-weighted index since 1978.
Least Tern Population Forecast in Kentucky
If the recent trend holds, Least Tern in Kentucky is projected to fall about 57% by 2019 — from 0.29 in 2014 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±140.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-57%Change by 2019
0.12Projected 2019 index
0.00–0.3095% range
±140.8%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| 2016 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| 2017 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| 2018 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| 2019 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
Least Tern Survey Routes in Kentucky
| Bardwell 2 | 10 | 2014 | 2010 |
| Joy | 3 | 2010 | 2001 |
| Bardwell | 1 | 2000 | 1967 |
Least Tern Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.