BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Least Tern Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesWetland birds

Least Tern in Nebraska has increased: up 36% on the route-weighted index since 2001.

+36%Since 2001TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Least Tern Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Least Tern in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Least Tern Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Least Tern in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.14 (95% range 0.04–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Tern in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.14 (95% range 0.04–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19942030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.130.030.23
20270.130.030.23
20280.130.030.23
20290.140.030.24
20300.140.040.24

Least Tern Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Least Tern in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kearney320251994
Gretna 2220232019
Richland220242007
Gretna120171997

Least Tern Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.