Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Least Tern Population Trend in Alabama
Least Tern in Alabama has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
-92%Since 1968
6Routes In State
53Years
Notable Least Tern Trends in Alabama
long arc declinecomputed index
Least Tern has collapsed in Alabama: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Least Tern Population Forecast in Alabama
If the recent trend holds, Least Tern in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.29 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1133.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
n/aChange by 2024
0.29Projected 2024 index
0.00–1.795% range
±1133.9%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 1.7 |
| 2021 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 1.7 |
| 2022 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 1.7 |
| 2023 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 1.7 |
| 2024 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 1.7 |
Least Tern Survey Routes in Alabama
| Dauphin Is | 9 | 1990 | 1966 |
| St. Elmo | 4 | 2013 | 2013 |
| Alabama Pt | 2 | 2003 | 1969 |
| Dauphin Is 2 | 2 | 2018 | 1991 |
| Alabama Pt 2 | 1 | 2019 | 2004 |
| Chacaloochee Bay | 1 | 2016 | 2010 |
Least Tern Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.