BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Tern Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesWetland birds

Least Tern in North Carolina has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-39%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Least Tern Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Least Tern in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Least Tern Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Least Tern in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±162.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±162.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.39
20260.050.000.39
20270.040.000.38
20280.040.000.38
20290.030.000.37

Least Tern Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Least Tern in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Milltail Cr1420051996
Merrimon720231968
Mashoes719741974
Arapahoe319771977
Grandy219711971
Myrtle Grove120241967
Supply119941994
Newport120222002

Least Tern Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinebraskanew-jerseynew-yorkoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.