BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Clapper Rail Population Trend in Florida

All statesWetland birds

Clapper Rail in Florida has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-18%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Clapper Rail Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Clapper Rail in Florida. See the full index history below.

Clapper Rail Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Clapper Rail in Florida is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±164.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±164.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clapper Rail in Florida is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±164.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.32
20260.080.000.32
20270.080.000.32
20280.080.000.32
20290.070.000.31

Clapper Rail Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Clapper Rail in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pinelands1119921992
Alligator Pt520241987
Key West419871987
Sugarloaf Key 2320162008
Punta Gorda219801980
Steinhatchee220231967
Ft Gadsden219871976
Vero Beach219981998
Ft Waltn Bch120012001
Miccosukee119691969
Port St Joe120131967
Merritt Isl120081991
Ridge Harbor120061999
Scottsmoor120101971
St Vincent I120241995
Plantation K119831966
Santa Rosa119971987
Card Sound120031998
Cross City120231995
Aripeka120221989
Weaver Stn120111989
Port St Joe 2120182015

Clapper Rail Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawaregeorgialouisianamarylandnew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinasouth-carolinatexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.