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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Clapper Rail Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Clapper Rail in Texas has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-88%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Clapper Rail Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Clapper Rail has collapsed in Texas: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Clapper Rail Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Clapper Rail in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±220.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±220.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clapper Rail in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±220.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.27
20260.000.000.27
20270.000.000.27
20280.000.000.27
20290.000.000.27

Clapper Rail Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Clapper Rail in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oyster Lake220231995
Lag Atascosa119721972
Indianola120221967
Chinquapin120242004
Winnie119951967
Stowell120171969
Danbury120242024
Bayside 2120041997
Bayside 3120242013

Clapper Rail Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgialouisianamarylandnew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinasouth-carolinavirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.