BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Clapper Rail Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesWetland birds

Clapper Rail in North Carolina has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-47%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Clapper Rail Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Clapper Rail in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Clapper Rail Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Clapper Rail in North Carolina is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clapper Rail in North Carolina is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.000.32
20260.100.000.32
20270.100.000.32
20280.100.000.32
20290.100.000.32

Clapper Rail Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Clapper Rail in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Merrimon320231973
Myrtle Grove320241966
Supply320241992
Shallotte119911990
Jarvisburg 2120002000
Newport120211995
Milltail Cr119951993

Clapper Rail Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgialouisianamarylandnew-jerseynew-yorksouth-carolinatexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.