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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Clapper Rail Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesWetland birds

Clapper Rail in Louisiana has surged: up 580% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+580%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Clapper Rail Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Clapper Rail has surged in Louisiana: up 580% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Clapper Rail Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Clapper Rail in Louisiana is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+46%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clapper Rail in Louisiana is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.540.001.1
20260.550.001.1
20270.560.001.1
20280.560.001.1
20290.570.001.1

Clapper Rail Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Clapper Rail in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ltl Chenier1620241986
Grand Isle1020192010
Sabine Nwr 21020162009
Sabine Nwr820011992
Gran Chenier619821970
Forked Island 2520112010
Creole419801978
Forked Island320192008
Glencoe219971989
Esther220102010
Carlisle119681968
Hackberry120121967
Woodlawn120172017

Clapper Rail Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiamarylandnew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinasouth-carolinatexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.