BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Clapper Rail Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesWetland birds

Clapper Rail in Louisiana has surged: up 545% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+545%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Clapper Rail Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Clapper Rail in Louisiana. See the full index history below.

Clapper Rail Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Clapper Rail in Louisiana is projected to rise about 80% by 2030 — from 0.31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+80%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±103.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clapper Rail in Louisiana is projected to rise about 80% by 2030 — from 0.31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.530.001.1
20270.540.001.1
20280.540.001.1
20290.550.001.1
20300.560.001.1

Clapper Rail Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Clapper Rail in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ltl Chenier1220251986
Grand Isle1020192010
Sabine Nwr 21020162009
Sabine Nwr820011992
Gran Chenier619821970
Forked Island 2520112010
Creole419801978
Forked Island320192008
Glencoe219971989
Esther220102010
Carlisle119681968
Hackberry120121967
Woodlawn120172017

Clapper Rail Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiamarylandnew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinasouth-carolinatexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.