BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Forster's Tern Population Trend in Florida

All statesWetland birds

Forster's Tern in Florida has surged: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+111%Since 1973
17Routes In State
32Years

Notable Forster's Tern Trends in Florida

long arc increasecomputed index

Forster's Tern has surged in Florida: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forster's Tern Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Forster's Tern in Florida is projected to fall about 61% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-61%Change by 2029
0.08Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.3595% range
±75.3%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.090.000.36
20260.090.000.36
20270.090.000.36
20280.080.000.35
20290.080.000.35

Forster's Tern Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Forster's Tern in Florida.
Santa Rosa1719911988
Cross City1520152014
Scottsmoor1220241968
St Vincent I820102010
Mabel819981998
Alligator Pt719931993
Ft Gadsden520131978
Port St Joe220072007
St Augustine220212005
Ft Waltn Bch120091975
Croom119981998
Steinhatchee119921992
Aripeka120042003
Merritt Isl120031999
Childs119881988
Ridge Harbor120022002
Merritt Island 2120142014

Forster's Tern Population Trend in Other States

alabamacaliforniacoloradodelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoregonsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.