Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Forster's Tern Population Trend in New Jersey
Forster's Tern in New Jersey has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1981.
-65%Since 1981
6Routes In State
38Years
Notable Forster's Tern Trends in New Jersey
long arc declinecomputed index
Forster's Tern has fallen sharply in New Jersey: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1981.
Forster's Tern Population Forecast in New Jersey
If the recent trend holds, Forster's Tern in New Jersey is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±466.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+12%Change by 2029
0.43Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.195% range
±466.7%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 1.1 |
| 2026 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 1.1 |
| 2027 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 1.1 |
| 2028 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 1.1 |
| 2029 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 1.1 |
Forster's Tern Survey Routes in New Jersey
| Del Haven | 11 | 1991 | 1991 |
| Ocean City | 8 | 2024 | 1979 |
| Six Points | 7 | 2014 | 2012 |
| Cape May Ch | 7 | 2013 | 1992 |
| Villas | 4 | 1981 | 1979 |
| Winslow | 2 | 2000 | 1990 |
Forster's Tern Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.