Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Forster's Tern Population Trend in Virginia
Forster's Tern in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
-66%Since 1970
6Routes In State
22Years
Notable Forster's Tern Trends in Virginia
long arc declinecomputed index
Forster's Tern has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
Forster's Tern Population Forecast in Virginia
If the recent trend holds, Forster's Tern in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2022, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±136.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
n/aChange by 2022
0.05Projected 2022 index
0.00–0.1495% range
±136.3%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| 2019 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| 2020 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| 2021 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| 2022 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
Forster's Tern Survey Routes in Virginia
| White Stone | 7 | 1996 | 1970 |
| Sharps | 4 | 1999 | 1999 |
| Quinby | 3 | 1983 | 1966 |
| Pungo | 1 | 1994 | 1978 |
| Chincoteag W | 1 | 2017 | 1995 |
| Cape Charles | 1 | 2013 | 1999 |
Forster's Tern Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.