BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Skimmer Population Trend in Florida

All statesWetland birds

Black Skimmer in Florida has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Skimmer Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Skimmer has fallen sharply in Florida: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black Skimmer Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Black Skimmer in Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Skimmer in Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.001.7
20260.000.001.7
20270.000.001.7
20280.000.001.7
20290.000.001.7

Black Skimmer Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Black Skimmer in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Merritt Isl3120031991
Santa Rosa3120031988
Scottsmoor2020211968
Shawano1220021988
St Vincent I920241996
Steinhatchee719731973
Ft Lonesome420142014
Salvista219731967
Weaver Stn220121992
Ft Waltn Bch120071966
Punta Gorda119811980
Port St Joe119761968
Ft Gadsden119881972
Wildernes Pk120132005
Indiantown119951995
Plantation K119881967
Andytown119751975
Alligator Pt120231988
Pleasant Gr119951995
Homestead120232023
Citrus Park120041989

Black Skimmer Population Trend in Other States

alabamacaliforniadelawaregeorgialouisianamarylandmississippinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinasouth-carolinatexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.