BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Skimmer Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesWetland birds

Black Skimmer in New Jersey has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-92%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Skimmer Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Skimmer has collapsed in New Jersey: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Black Skimmer Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Black Skimmer in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.23 (95% range 0.00–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1532.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1532.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Skimmer in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.23 (95% range 0.00–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1532.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19792029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.390.004.5
20260.350.004.5
20270.310.004.4
20280.270.004.4
20290.230.004.4

Black Skimmer Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Black Skimmer in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Villas319811980
Six Points120062006
Del Haven119911991
Cape May Ch120041993
Ocean City120241979

Black Skimmer Population Trend in Other States

alabamacaliforniadelawarefloridageorgialouisianamarylandmississippinew-yorknorth-carolinasouth-carolinatexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.