Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Black Skimmer Population Trend in New Jersey
Black Skimmer in New Jersey has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1981.
-92%Since 1981
5Routes In State
28Years
Notable Black Skimmer Trends in New Jersey
long arc declinecomputed index
Black Skimmer has collapsed in New Jersey: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1981.
Black Skimmer Population Forecast in New Jersey
If the recent trend holds, Black Skimmer in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.23 (95% range 0.00–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1532.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
n/aChange by 2029
0.23Projected 2029 index
0.00–4.495% range
±1532.9%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 4.5 |
| 2026 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 4.5 |
| 2027 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 4.4 |
| 2028 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 4.4 |
| 2029 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 4.4 |
Black Skimmer Survey Routes in New Jersey
| Villas | 3 | 1981 | 1980 |
| Six Points | 1 | 2006 | 2006 |
| Del Haven | 1 | 1991 | 1991 |
| Cape May Ch | 1 | 2004 | 1993 |
| Ocean City | 1 | 2024 | 1979 |
Black Skimmer Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.