Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Black Skimmer Population Trend in Alabama
Black Skimmer in Alabama has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
-74%Since 1968
6Routes In State
46Years
Notable Black Skimmer Trends in Alabama
long arc declinecomputed index
Black Skimmer has fallen sharply in Alabama: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Black Skimmer Population Forecast in Alabama
If the recent trend holds, Black Skimmer in Alabama is projected to rise about 69% by 2026 — from 0.07 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±672.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+69%Change by 2026
0.12Projected 2026 index
0.00–1.195% range
±672.9%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 1.1 |
| 2023 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 1.1 |
| 2024 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 1.1 |
| 2025 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 1.1 |
| 2026 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 1.1 |
Black Skimmer Survey Routes in Alabama
| Dauphin Is | 5 | 1990 | 1966 |
| Chacaloochee Bay | 5 | 2017 | 2017 |
| St. Elmo | 5 | 2021 | 2007 |
| Alabama Pt | 2 | 1986 | 1972 |
| Dauphin Is 2 | 2 | 2013 | 1991 |
| Alabama Pt 2 | 1 | 2014 | 2005 |
Black Skimmer Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.