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Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Skimmer Population Trend in Alabama

All statesWetland birds

Black Skimmer in Alabama has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-74%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Skimmer Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Skimmer has fallen sharply in Alabama: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black Skimmer Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Black Skimmer in Alabama is projected to rise about 69% by 2026 — from 0.07 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±672.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+69%Change by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±672.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Skimmer in Alabama is projected to rise about 69% by 2026 — from 0.07 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±672.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.140.001.1
20230.130.001.1
20240.130.001.1
20250.120.001.1
20260.120.001.1

Black Skimmer Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Black Skimmer in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dauphin Is519901966
Chacaloochee Bay520172017
St. Elmo520212007
Alabama Pt219861972
Dauphin Is 2220131991
Alabama Pt 2120142005

Black Skimmer Population Trend in Other States

californiadelawarefloridageorgialouisianamarylandmississippinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinasouth-carolinatexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.