BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Skimmer Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Black Skimmer in Texas has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-36%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Skimmer Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black Skimmer in Texas. See the full index history below.

Black Skimmer Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Black Skimmer in Texas is projected to rise about 76% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±215.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+76%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±215.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Skimmer in Texas is projected to rise about 76% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±215.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.38
20260.120.000.38
20270.120.000.38
20280.120.000.38
20290.130.000.38

Black Skimmer Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Black Skimmer in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oyster Lake1020241995
Loyola Beach620012001
Lag Atascosa419891969
Hinkles Fer419851985
Bayside420021994
Bayside 2320041997
Bayside 3320182018
Danbury220121995
Raymondville119891989
Kingsville119761976
L. Atascosa Nwr120171998
Indianola120221967
Chinquapin120241995
Winnie119841984
Stowell119751975
Port Acres120112011

Black Skimmer Population Trend in Other States

alabamacaliforniadelawarefloridageorgialouisianamarylandmississippinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinasouth-carolinavirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.